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Каспинфо июнь 2002 |
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Название: Геополитические проблемы Каспия на англ. языке Главные Пункты: * С.Манн, спецпредставитель США по Каспийскому региону, заявил, что США не будут участвовать в определении статуса Каспия, т.к. не являются прибрежным государством, а будут выступать лишь в роли наблюдателя. * Министр иностранных дел Азербайджана В.Гулиев считает, что подписание российско-азербайджанского соглашения о разграничении дна Каспийского моря заствит Иран и Туркменистан смягчить свою позицию по вопросу статуса Каспия. * Президент Азербайджана Г.Алиев заявил, что подписание российско-азербайджанского соглашения о разграничении дна Каспийского моря откладывается, т.к. не готовы необходимые документы. * Министр нефтяной промышленности Ирана Б.Намдар-Занганех заявил, что Иран готовится к разработке нефтяных месторождений Южного Каспия, не дожидаясь одобрения со стороны своих соседей. Он не уточнил, собирается ли Иран разрабатывать месторождение Алоз, на которое претендует и Азербайджан. Аналитики считают, что такое поведение Ирана может привести к военным конфликтам. (06.06.2002) Полный Текст Геополитические проблемы Каспия на англ. языке Геополитические проблемы Каспия на англ. языке *** /17:47 05.06.2002/ Status of Caspian Sea will be determined by littoral states, US Envoy said Baku, June 5, 2002. (CNA). "The solution of the Caspian issue is very important for Washington as well. But since we are not Caspian region state we do play a role of observer," Steven Mann, the US envoy to Caspian region said. According to the US Envoy, it was the interior affair of five littoral states to determine the status of the Caspian Sea. Challenge for the negotiation by regional states is appreciated. ANS informed citing the Envoy that the US do hope that problem will be solved peacefully and transportation issue of the energy products will be cleared once and far all. He did make clearance for his words said during the press-conference in Baku, June 4. "The status affair of the Caspian sea could become lengthened with months or years. I didn't mean concrete period of time. I want everybody to understand how important and significant was the solution of the problem" Mr. Mann stressed. US envoy said that, the 9th international oil and gas conference and exhibition held in Baku, was very important for the region. The participation of the leading oil companies of the world proves it. CNA/www.caspian.ru *** /15:54 07.06.2002/ Russia and Azerbaijan to sign Caspian accord Baku, June 7, 2002. (CNA). Russia and Azerbaijan will sign a bilateral accord on dividing the Caspian Sea on Sunday, less than a month after Russia clinched a similar deal with Kazakhstan in the northern half of the oil-rich sea, the Azeri foreign minister said. The agreement follows the failure of talks in April on a broader deal between five Caspian littoral states - Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Experts said the new bilateral deal would further isolate Iran and Turkmenistan, who could be forced to soften their positions on the division of the Caspian, which is believed to hold as much oil as the North Sea. "The Russian-Azeri agreement is the logical continuation of our bilateral work and it will be a very important event for the whole Caspian region," Azeri Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliyev said. He said Azerbaijan's veteran-leader Haydar Aliyev will travel on Sunday to Russia's second city St. Petersburg to sign the deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Sunday's deal could give Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan a trump card in their talks with Iran and Turkmenistan. "Now they will be able to say they represent the opinion of the three states, which means a majority. And this could probably help soften the Iranian and Turkmen position," he said. Tensions remain high in the Caspian south especially between Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan. Last year Iran sent its gunboats to chase off Azeri vessels that were exploring the Alov oil block for the oil giant BP. BP has said it would not explore Alov until Iran and Azerbaijan ended the row. Yesterday BP praised the planned bilateral deal, Gulf News reports. CNA/www.caspian.ru *** /14:07 10.06.2002/ Russian-Azeri Caspian Sea deal postponed Baku, June 10, 2002. (CNA). Necessary documents are not ready yet for signing the Russia and Azerbaijan bilateral accord on dividing the oil-rich Caspian Sea, the Azeri President Heidar Aliyev said in Baku before his departure to St Peteresburg where he had a days talks with the Russian President Vladimir Putin. "The agreement will be signed at another suitable time," said Aliyev. This deal is similar to the one signed by Russia and Kazakhstan in the northern half of the sea less than a month ago. Experts say the new bilateral deal between Russia and Azerbaijan will further isolate Iran and Turkmenistan, who could be forced to soften their positions on the Caspian Sea. The Caspian is believed to hold as much oil as the North Sea. Talks in April on a broader deal among the five Caspian littoral states -- Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan -- failed to reach a solution. CNA/www.caspian.ru *** IRAN ANNOUNCES UNILATERAL DECISION TO DEVELOP CASPIAN RESOURCESArtie McConnell: 6/04/02 After several failed attempts to resolve territorial issues with its Caspian neighbors, Iran appears poised to begin developing unilaterally its energy resources in its portion of the sea. While Tehran does not seem intent on trying to develop resources in disputed areas, the announcement is sure to raise regional tension. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar-Zanganeh told the IRNA news agency May 23 that Tehran would begin operations on the Caspian seabed without the consent of its neighbors once $300 million worth of drilling equipment is fully installed. The Minister stated that Iran's two-year drilling projects would take place in the southern sector of the Caspian. He declined to specify whether Iran intended to explore the Aloz oilfields that lie in a disputed area currently claimed by both Iran and Azerbaijan. [For background see the Business and Economics archive]. The announcement marks a sudden shift in Iran's stance on Caspian development. Tehran has long held that each of the five littoral states is entitled to 20 percent of the sea, and that exploitation of hydrocarbon reserves cannot begin until after the sea's legal status has been resolved. The other four Caspian states - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan - favor some type of partition plan for the Caspian that would leave Iran with approximately 12 to 16 percent of the seabed. Iran has shown little willingness to make concessions on the issue. The Iranian announcement comes after several failed rounds of diplomacy on the territorial issue. A summit of the five Caspian states ended in late April without consensus on the division of the Caspian. [For background see the Business and Economics archive]. In May, Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev's visit to Iran similarly concluded without agreement on bilateral territorial disputes. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Tehran's insistence on a 20 percent share of the Caspian has already raised tension among the Caspian states, and is considered the primary stumbling block to progress on the sea's territorial division and energy development. Tensions came to a head last summer when an Iranian warship threatened to fire on two Azeri research vessels if they did not immediately leave "Iranian territory." Yet rather than reflecting a coherent change in strategy, Tehran's dramatic alteration of policy is a manifestation of its inability to control the Caspian situation in the face of other regional developments. Specifically, as Iranian inflexibility dims the prospects for a comprehensive territorial agreement, the other littoral states have begun to parcel up the Caspian among each other through bilateral agreements. The recently-brokered accord between Russia and Kazakhstan, which Tehran called "legally invalid" and "unacceptable," will allow those two countries to unfreeze development in several northern oilfields. A similar understanding also exists between Russia and Azerbaijan. These agreements have effectively created a de facto partition of the Caspian's northern sectors that Iran can do little to reverse. Russia's military buildup in the region is also perceived by Iranian leaders as a threat to their negotiating position on the Caspian issue. Shortly after the late April Ashgabat summit, President Putin called for massive military exercises in the region that will involve the Caspian fleet, border guards, the Fourth Air Force Group and troops from the North Caucasus Military District. The size of Russia's Caspian flotilla has expanded in recent years, with several rapid-attack craft arriving from the Baltic and Black Sea fleets. Adding to this already sizeable force, Russia will soon deploy a ship that will be the Caspian's largest and armed with the latest missile and artillery equipment. A land-site missile base has also been relocated from the Baltic to the Caspian region. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Ostensibly for counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics and sea rescue, most analysts agree that the military buildup and subsequent naval exercises are really designed to emphasize Russia's military superiority over Iran in the Caspian. Though Russian and Iranian territorial interests in the area do not openly clash, Russian oil companies are set to profit from Azerbaijan's oil fields, and the threat of conflict perpetuated by Iran has hampered investment in Russia's sector of the Caspian. The impending display of Russian military force may work to undermine Iran's coercive diplomatic strategy while simultaneously reducing Tehran's negotiating clout. While much has been made of the American military presence in Georgia and Central Asia, the United States has also been helping Azerbaijan to enhance its naval capabilities in the Caspian. In late March, US and Azerbaijani military officials held high level consultations concerning maritime defense, and the US Air Force has expressed interest in acquiring a base in Azerbaijan. In addition, Congress has lifted a ban on arms exports to Azerbaijan and has begun to render tangible military support to Baku. Such assistance leaves Baku less susceptible to Iranian military and diplomatic pressure. On May 31, Ilham Aliyev, the son of the Azerbaijani president and deputy head of the SOCAR state oil company, said Azerbaijan would not back down in the face of Iranian pressure. "Azerbaijan does not lay claim to any oil fields in the national waters of other countries and expects neighboring countries to respond in kind," the Bilik Dunyasi news agency reported the younger Aliyev as saying. "We are not going to cede anything to anyone." Iran's announcement that it is prepared to drill in southern Caspian waters serves as a warning sign that Tehran is even more prone than ever to act aggressively out of fear that it is being left out of the Caspian equation. Thirty-eight new Iranian warships were recently deployed in the Caspian, and Tehran seems to be trying to keep some leverage by fomenting conflict until the other littoral states, most notably Azerbaijan, capitulate to their demands. The dangers of this new approach are self-evident, as any attempt by Iran to forcibly annex disputed oilfields via preemptive drilling could lead to a military escalation far more dangerous than the gunboat incident of last summer. Editor's Note: Artie McConnell is a Central Asian affairs analyst currently based in Moscow. Posted June 4, 2002 © Eurasianet http://www.eurasianet.org/index.shtml |