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Каспинфо апрель 2002 |
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Название: Нефтегазовая отрасль стран Прикаспия на англ. языке Главные Пункты: * Автор статьи считает, что следующим этапом Большой игры на Каспии станет соперничество за транзит нефти с Кашагана, Казахстан: - Россия хочет, чтобы нефть траспортировалась по ее трубопроводам в порты России, в частности на Балтийском море; - США надеются, что нефть прйдет по трубопроводу Баку-Джейхан; - правительство Казахстана и концерн ENI, оператор проекта, не ислючают, что нефть будет доставляться в Иран по трубопроводу, а затем - в Персидский залив. * Санкция на строительство трубопровода Баку-Джейхан будет дана в июне-июле 2002 г., заявил В.Алескеров, глава департамента иностранных инвестиций ГНКАР. Нефтяные компании, входящие в спонсорскую группу, оплатят только 30% стоимости проекта, 70% будут взяты из других источников. * Согласно подписанного соглашения, строительство газопровода Баку - Тбилиси - Эрзерум начнется в этом году и законочится к 2005 г. * и др. сообщения. (18.04.2002) Полный Текст Нефтегазовая отрасль стран Прикаспия на англ. языке Нефтегазовая отрасль Прикаспия на англ. языке *** The next move is check If the oil contest around the Caspian Sea isn't quite over, at least the national and big corporate winners are starting to emerge. A look at the new oil-rich April 8 issue - It is apparently beyond the limits of journalistic restraint to tell the story of Caspian oil as anything but a breathless spy thriller. So every few months for many years now, another writer has discovered that the age-old "Great Game" for control of the Caspian is entering a new and more dangerous phase. The tale always begins with the Russians and British battling over the region in the 19th century. It then warns that the diplomatic intrigue continues today, with new powers and new spies skirmishing over the always "fabulous" oil wealth of the Caspian. The tale is no less true for being so well worn, but now there is something truly new to say. It's too early to declare the game over, with new intimations of oil war and violence in the region all the time, and no one willing to openly concede defeat. But after years of inconclusive wrangling, the Great Game is starting to yield clear national and corporate winners. THE STAKES ARE high. The Caspian Basin, at a conservative estimate, contains about 70 billion barrels of oil, one of the richest stores of petroleum outside the Middle East. At its simplest level, the Great Game is about who owns the oil reserves and who controls the pipelines that carry the oil to global markets. In recent months it's become increasingly clear which of the many dueling pipeline projects will actually be built. At the same time, new surveys have also clarified which nations and companies are truly oil-rich. Among companies, British Petroleum, ENI of Italy and (above all) ChevronTexaco of the United States appear to hold claim to the bulk of regional reserves, as well as crucial pipeline routes. Among countries, the clear winner is Kazakhstan, which is now believed to hold up to 75 percent of all Caspian reserves, much more than once thought. With 10 billion to 17 billion barrels of proven reserves, Kazakhstan is on the verge of becoming seriously oil-rich. The United States can also celebrate a strategic victory: it is now close to achieving its goal of ending the old Russian monopoly on Caspian export pipelines. The strategy goes back to the last days of the Soviet Empire, when huge new oilfields were found sandwiched between its southern fringes and Iran. Western oil majors moved in to exploit these fields, no longer fearful of work in Russia's backyard. Meanwhile Washington started angling to make sure at least one new pipeline out of the Caspian would bypass Russia by going through Turkey. This route would not only help Caspian republics achieve real oil and economic independence from Russia, it would also bypass Iran and diminish this U.S. rival as a player in the region, too. More recently, the September 11 attacks raised the U.S. fear of dependence on Arab oil, and its interest in the Caspian. So it's good news to Washington that the emerging corporate winner, ChevronTexaco, is based in San Francisco, and that the pipeline battles are going America's way, too. The centerpiece of U.S. policy has been to promote a pipeline that goes from the Caspian coast at Baku, Azerbaijan, through Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean Port of Ceyhan. Despite lingering doubts about the safety of the war-torn route, financing and the size of the Azerbaijan oilfields, construction on the $3 billion project is set to begin in June. Oil is slated to flow by early 2005. "Everyone's much more determined to see this through after September 11th," says Mike Bilbo, a spokesman at British Petroleum, which is leading the Baku-Ceyhan project. "I think it made people realize the importance of diversifying energy sources." Russia appears to have beaten a tactical retreat. Its own oilfields are booming, but there's no question its influence over neighbors is weakening. Under former president Boris Yeltsin, Russia tried hard to derail Western oil development in the Caspian by sponsoring mini-wars. His successor, Vladimir Putin, has chosen to give up that fight and accept Western influence as inevitable. Moscow will still make billions from the pipelines that cross its territory, and Russian companies hold lucrative minority stakes in many Caspian fields, often partnered with Americans. So this is no longer a clear-cut front in a global cold-war battle. Washington and Moscow are not always on opposing sides, and Russia cannot easily control local officials in the region. Though ChevronTexaco now controls the biggest corporate holdings, or about 50 percent of the total, its stake in a new pipeline is in trouble, due to bureaucratic meddling. Built by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, the pipe extends from the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan to the Russian Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk. Opened in November, the pipeline has been closed repeatedly by local officials, disrupting the flow of ChevronTexaco oil. "[ChevronTexaco] are getting shaken down," says a Western analyst. "It's not political, it's just part of the corruption and inefficiency." At the same time, Putin appears to be plotting a Russian comeback. He has been traveling around the Caspian, laying the groundwork for a regional supply cartel, a kind of "mini-OPEC" led from Moscow. So far, he has talked to the presidents of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. The Central Asians seem keener than the Azeris, who are apparently wary of helping to revive even a shadow of the Russian Empire. Yet the potential is there: the key to a cartel is production capacity. Under plans now in the works, the Caspian could be producing and exporting 7 million barrels a day by 2012, about equal to the current exports of OPEC giant Saudi Arabia. It's not inconceivable that Putin will one day convince Russia's former satellites that together they can move markets to their own advantage. The shifting new alliances are engaged in a clash over what has recently been revealed as one of the world's richest oilfields, Kashagan in Kazakhstan. Operated by Italy's ENI, Kashagan is due to begin pumping in 2008. Russia wants Kashagan oil to go through its pipeline network to ports as far afield as the Baltic Sea. The United States would like to see it go by tanker to Baku and then through the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. ENI and the Kazakh government are also exploring a short link to Iran's pipeline network and on to the Persian Gulf. "Kazakhstan is keeping its options open," says Kairgeldy Kabyldin, vice president of KazTransOil. "We have another six years to decide." It's a perilous decision. U.S. law threatens heavy sanctions against companies doing business in Iran, including foreign companies. In the late 1990s, European oil companies like ENI and BP cut deals in Iran without reprisal from Washington, but that was then. In August the Bush administration extended the Iran sanctions for five years, and then came Bush's speech featuring Iran in the "Axis of Evil." "There's still a lot of wishful thinking in the industry that the U.S. is not serious about these sanctions," says Steve Mann, the U.S. State Department's senior Caspian diplomat. "The State of the Union address stated very clearly that we are." Iran is looking like a major loser in the Caspian, angering Tehran in ways that nearly triggered a shooting war. Last July two Iranian jet fighters and a gunboat threatened the Geofizik 3, a BP exploration ship on its way to conduct seismic tests on a field claimed by both Iran and Azerbaijan. Within hours of the incident, recalls one Western diplomat, "all hell almost broke loose." Iranian jets began flying sorties close to Azerbaijan's capital and Tehran radio announced that "precautionary" troop movements were taking place near the Azeri border. A senior Iranian official ominously remarked that "Azerbaijan was once an Iranian province," causing Turkey to reply that it would not allow its political and ethnic ally Azerbaijan to become "the next Kuwait." The saber rattling quickly died down. Iran simply does not have the military muscle to enforce its claims to the Caspian, which have been unsettled for decades. Tehran insists the Caspian is a lake, which under marine law would give it a claim to 20 percent of the underlying oilfields. Azerbaijan counters that the Caspian is a sea, which would enlarge is own claim while cutting Iran's to under 12 percent. "But ultimately it doesn't matter," says Guive Mirfendereski, author of "A Diplomatic History of the Caspian Sea," "if the Caspian is defined as a lake, a sea or a bathtub-it's all down to who's in the strongest negotiation position." Luckily for the oil majors, none of the really big fields are in disputed territory. The sea's only serious naval power, Russia, has a vested interest in stability to protect its oil and still considerable gas holdings. Now the United States is stationing forces in the region for the first time, sending troops to Uzbekistan and military advisers to Georgia to fight the war on terror. But it's lost on no one in the Caspian that Georgia, in particular, is more central to oil routes than to the hunt for Osama bin Laden. Spy novelists, resharpen your pencils. http://www.msnbc.com/news/732020.asp?cp1=1#BODY By Owen Matthews NEWSWEEK INTERNATIONAL 07 Apr 2002 http://www.eurasia.org.ru/ *** APPROVAL OF BAKU-TBILISI-JEYHAN MEP CONSTRUCTION IS WAITED IN JULY 2002 Baku /SCEconomic/ 08.04.02/ Sanction to construct Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhan MEP will be given in June-July 2002, said Valeh Aleskerov, the head of Foreign Investments department of SOCAR, at the press conference. According to him the oil companies, members of sponsor group, will cover30% of Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhan MEP construction financing. The 70% rest will be allocated by different structures, which SOCAR and other oil companies are negotiating with. Practically all share holding is distributed except 12.5%, which can be purchased by any company that intends to join the project. Valeh Aleskerov noticed that if a company buys these 12.5% before sanction to construct then it would have the equal rights with the partners. After sanction the conditions of joining may be reviewed and will be settled only by negotiations with sponsor group. Concerning of SOCAR participation it must be noticed that SOCAR had 50% of share holding in the project initially, and then let ENI had 5% and 12.5% for sale. If this share holding will not be bought before start of pipeline construction then it will be distributed among the members of sponsor group. Valeh Aleskerov noticed that SOCAR will pay its share holding with its own means and means of Oil Fund (30%), and will be looking for credit from international financial institutions to pay the rest. According to him implementation of this project will provide the Oil Fund with inflow of big amount of means. After the oil companies will reimburse their expenses the MEP will be passed into the ownership of Azerbaijan. It is expected that sanction to construction will be given in July 2002, and construction will be completed in the end of 2004. The first oil will flow through it in January 2005. The sponsors' group of project, evaluated in $2.8-$2.9 billion, consists of: SOCAR (45%), the operator of the project BP (25,72%), Unocal (7,74%), Statoil (6,45%), TPAO (5,08%), Itochu (2,96%), Delta Hess (2,05%), and ENI (5%). Total cost of the project is $2.9 billion. # "South Caucasus Economy", Issue 6 *** /11:28 12.04.2002/ Turkey will give 'Notice to proceed' for Baku-Ceyhan in July Ankara, April 12, 2002. (CNA). Turkey will give notice to proceed with the expropriation and construction phase of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline in July, a senior government official said. Turkish Daily News says that the first dig for the pipeline will take place in July, as the start of the project, which has been planned for nearly a decade. The basic engineering studies for the Baku-Ceyhan main export pipeline (MEP) will be completed in the second half of June, he stated, updating the Turkish Daily News over the recent situation of the project. The negotiations for the financing of the project have also started, officials said, indicating that last efforts are being made for the partnership of the MEP company. "We have entered the last two weeks for the partnerships on Baku-Ceyhan," the senior energy bureaucrat said. Russian company Lukoil is also among the companies wanting to take part in the project to construct the pipeline. The MEP Company includes British Petroleum (BP), Norwegian Statoil, Azerbaijani SOCAR, Turkish Petroleum Company (TPAO), Japan Itochu, Saudi-American Delta-Hess, American Unocal and Italian ENI. Government officials denied the comments that the process in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks against the United States had negatively affected the project. Even without Kazakh oil, the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline will be able to operate, a senior energy bureaucrat said. It was being commented that the U.S. operation in Afghanistan was related with the routes of oil and gas pipelines. However, Turkish officials stated that for the supply security of the West, the transfer of oil to the Eastern markets will not be something preferred by the United States. CNA/www.caspian.ru *** BAKU-TBILISI-ERZURUM SOUTH CAUCASIAN GAS PIPELINE Gia Chanturia, the President of the Georgian international Oil Corporation signed the final agreement on the implementation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum South Caucasian gas pipeline project on 17th April in London. The signing of the agreement ended the negotiating stage and now the realization of the project will begin. The agreement was also signed by bp, Totalfinaelf, Lukagip, Statoil, Naftiran, Turkish Petroleum and the Azerbaijan State Oil Company. It is expected that the construction of Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum South Caucasian gas pipeline system will start later this year and will last until the beginning of 2005. The Georgian Messenger 19 April, 2002 Caucasus Environmental NGO Network (CENN) *** /17:30 25.04.2002/ Iran and Kazakhstan presidents stress Kazakh oil transfer via Iran Alma-Ata, April 25, 2002. (CNA). Iranian President Mohammad Khatami and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev reiterated their belief that the best way to transfer Kazakh oil, gas and energy to international waterways is via Turkmenistan and Iran. At a joint press conference, the two presidents told reporters that Iran is the shortest, most economical and secure route for transferring Central Asian energy to international waterways. Iran currently receives Kazakh oil via the Caspian Sea and transfers the same amount of oil for Kazakhastan to the Persian Gulf, said the Iranian president, who also expressed hope landlocked Kazakhastan would soon have a fast and economical access to international waterways for exports of its energy. Underlining the need for further expansion of Tehran-Astana cooperation, he said bilateral relations of the two countries are based on mutual respect, non-interference in each other's domestic affairs, pursuit of common interests and fostering peace and security in the entire region, particularly the Caspian, IRNA writes. CNA/www.caspian.ru *** /17:02 27.04.2002/ Russia and Kazakhstan reached accord on developing Caspian oil deposits Moscow, April 27, 2002. (CNA). Russia and Kazakhstan have reached accord on equal development of three Caspian oil deposits - the Kurmangazy, Khvalynskoye, and Tsentralnoye. The accord was reached based on the protocol to the Russian-kazakh agreement delimitating the rights to natural resources in the nothern part of the Caspian Sea. The agreement was sigend by the presidents of the both states in 1998. Kurmangazy was under the jurisdiction of Kazakhstan and Tsentralnoye and Khvalynskoye were under the jurisdiction of Russia. The Russian deputy prime minister Deputy Khristenko said after reaching accord with his Kazakh colleague Karim Masimov that Russia and Kazakhstan would develop Kurmangazy and Tsentralnoye fields along parity lines in a 50:50 proportion. CNA/www.caspian.ru |