|
Каспинфо декабрь 2001 |
|
Название: Пути транспортировки каспийских энергоресурсов на англ. яз. Главные Пункты: * Трубопровод Одесса- Броды предлагает доставку нефти к российскому трубопроводу Дружба, который может поставлять до 14,5 млн. т сырой нефти в год в Западную Европу. Основное преимущество трубопровода - возможность избежать основных транзитных заторов, а именно - прохождение турецких проливов (24.12.2001) Полный Текст Пути транспортировки каспийских энергоресурсов на англ. яз. Пути транспортировки каспийских энергоресурсов на англ. яз. *** ODESSA-BRODY PIPELINE CREATES NEW OPTION FOR EXPORT OF CASPIAN BASIN RESOURCES Ariel Cohen: 12/11/01 The war in Afghanistan has overshadowed important energy developments in the Caspian and Black Sea region. In October, Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) started shipping oil from the giant Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan to the Russian port of Novorossiisk. And on December 19, the Odessa-Brody pipeline in Ukraine is scheduled to become operational. The Odessa-Brody project was conceived in 1992, and offers an innovative way to get oil to the northwest, to the giant Russian Druzhba pipeline that supplies oil to Western Europe. Today, the Druzhba pipeline can handle 14.5 million tons of crude a year, and with the addition of pumping stations, it will be able to pump up to 45 million tons. A strategic bonus is the easy hook-up of the Odessa-Brody route to the refinery in Plotsk, Poland, and a further link to the Baltic port of Gdansk, from where oil be transported to Western markets. The primary advantage of the 673-kilometer long Odessa-Brody route is that allows exporters to avoid major transit bottlenecks. As Michael Bleyzer, President of the Houston-based SigmaBleyzer Fund and an advisor to the Ukrainian state pipeline company said, "getting the Caspian oil through Ukraine to Europe is strategically important for the United States. - With the increased supply of oil, and all other bypasses being several years from completion, this is too good of an opportunity to pass up." The new pipelines demonstrate that the Caspian Basin is emerging as a viable source of energy, creating an attractive alternate to the Middle East and other traditional oil provinces. However, their main strategic importance is as a revenue producer. The pipelines are being counted upon to help drive economic development in post-Soviet countries, as well as in Black Sea transit states, including Romania and Bulgaria. Since 1994, the volume of oil shipped out of the former Soviet Union has almost doubled, reaching 77.5 million metric tons in 2000. This figure consists of 66 million tons exported out of the Black Sea basin, and about 12 million tons imported, primarily to Bulgaria and Romania from the Middle East. Caspian energy reserves currently are comparable to those of the North Sea or North America. However, they have not been fully prospected. Some analysts say that massive discoveries, rivaling the giant Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak fields in the Northeast Caspian region, are likely in the future. Still, the Middle East dwarfs the Caspian. To put it in perspective, according to the US Energy Information Administration, the known Middle Eastern reserves are 683.6 billion barrels, whereas the Caspian Basin (including the Russian Caspian region) is estimated at 18-34 billion barrels, or up to 3.4 percent of the world total. Some experts believe the potential reserves in the Caspian Basin may be as high as 250-270 billion barrels, or 25 percent of the world total. Meanwhile, natural gas potential reserves are estimated as high as 645-665 trillion cubic feet (16-19 trillion cubic meters), or up to 12 percent of the world total. This makes the Caspian a significant source of energy for Europe and Eastern Mediterranean. Government officials and oil executives have long wrestled with the dilemma of finding ways to bring Caspian Basin resources to market. The flow of oil from the Caspian is constrained by the bottleneck of the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles (the Turkish Straits), a narrow water artery which connects the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara and the Mediterranean. Since 1994, the volume of oil flowing through the Straits has almost doubled, and will continue to grow in the early 21st century. The Turkish Straits is one of the most crowded transportation arteries in the world. Besides oil, the dense traffic includes liquid natural gas, chemicals and even explosives. The Bosphorus, which lies within the city and port limits of Istanbul, is at its narrowest point only 700 meters wide, and has several sharp turns that are particularly difficult to negotiate for large tankers. Today, over 45,000 vessels travel the Straits, not including leisure craft and fishing boats. In addition, 1.5 million people a day cross the Bosphorus on ferries, commuting to and from work. Thus, Turkish officials express concern that a rise in tanker traffic could significantly increase the safety threat to Istanbul and its environs. Most of the trans-straits oil comes today from the ports of Novorossiisk and Tuapse in Russia, and the Georgian ports of Supsa and Batumi. CPC will provide a large part of it, with 62 million tons a year scheduled to flow through the pipeline by 2010. Smaller amounts of Russian oil are currently exported from Odessa. With Caspian fields increasing production, large discoveries happening often, and the Bosphorus being a bottleneck for exports, new approaches to transportation routes are needed. The United States and Turkey have long since supported the construction of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which will bring Azerbajani oil from Shah Deniz and Guneshli fields to the Eastern Mediterranean for exports to Europe, Israel and the United States. British Petroleum-Amoco and the Azerbaijani national oil company SOCAR are conducting a preliminary engineering study for this pipeline. The major limitation to BTC is its high cost, upwards of $4 billion, according to some estimates. If the global recession continues, and oil prices remain low (below $15-17 a barrel), construction of Baku-Ceyhan pipeline may be delayed or shelved. And even if successful, BTC will provide an outlet for the existing Azerbaijani oil fields, but not for possible future discoveries in the Caspian Basin. Editor's Note: Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is a Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies at The Heritage Foundation. Posted December 11, 2001 © Eurasianet http://www.eurasianet.org http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav121101.shtml |