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Каспинфо октябрь 2001 |
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Название: Геополитические проблемы Каспия на англ. языке Главные Пункты: * Аналитики считают неоправданным строительство нефтепровода Баку-Джейхан в связи с запуском трубопровода КТК, а также из-за того, что бурение нескольких скважин в азербайджанском секторе Каспия не показало достаточных запасов нефти. Однако США не намерены отказываться от проекта. * Для реализации проектов трубопроводов для доставки каспийских энергоресурсов на мировые рынки необходимо обеспечить безопасность на Балканах, считает посол США в Великобритании У.Фариш. По его мнению, Россия и США должны объединить усилия для развития системы существующих трубопроводов. (17.10.2001) Полный Текст Геополитические проблемы Каспия на англ. языке Геополитические проблемы Каспия на англ. языке *** 1. U.S. Pushes Oil Pipe Through Caucasus (Moscow Times) 1. U.S. Pushes Oil Pipe Through Caucasus Moscow Times, September 25, 2001 By Anna Raff Moscow U.S. officials are reiterating their commitment to building a controversial Caspian pipeline, emphasizing the importance of "diversification" as political volatility increases after terrorist attacks on the United States. "The U.S. will not be deterred from its business by these events," said U.S. ambassador Steven Mann, senior adviser for Caspian basin energy diplomacy. "We will continue to build stability and cooperation." What Mann was addressing was the imminent construction of a long-debated pipeline running from Baku, Azerbaijan, through the Georgian capital Tblisi to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Conceived as a oil route that would bypass Russia, government and industry experts now see it as a pipeline that can become commercially viable if enough crude is found off the coast of Azerbaijan. An engineering study commissioned last year is progressing according to schedule and construction will start next summer, Mann said. Cost estimates range from $ 3 billion to $ 3.7 billion. "The policy of pipeline diversification is inevitable," he said at a Moscow oil conference last week. "I must stress that this is not an anti-Russian policy. It's a policy of anti-monopoly." The Baku-Ceyhan pipeline was seen as competing with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which has already completed its 1,580-kilometer stretch from Kazakhstan's Tengiz field to the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk. Although the release valves were cranked open earlier this year, tankers won't be loaded for another three weeks, said CPC general director Sergei Gnatchenko. This kind of half-victory for CPC has led Russian industry leaders to be more skeptical about the need and cost of the U.S.-led campaign for Baku-Ceyhan. "We welcome this project," Transneft president Semyon Vainshtok - through a half-smile - told a U.S. delegate. "If you want to spend $ 3 billion and then look on as the oil companies choose a more economical route, then go ahead." Transneft, the state-owned pipeline monopoly, itself is fighting for the opportunity to transport Caspian crude through Russia to other ports, and it has the capacity. The first stage of the Baltic Pipeline System - stretching from the Timan-Pechora region to the Baltic port of Primorsk - will add 240,000 barrels a day to Russia's export capacity and is set to go on line by year end. Other events have called Baku-Ceyhan into question. Several exploratory wells that were drilled off the coast of Azerbaijan earlier this year came up dry, leading some geologists to suspect that the Azeri government has overstated the amount of reserves in the region. Without huge reserves, the pipeline may not make commercial sense. Mann acknowledged as much." It has to be justified economically," he said. But there are other reasons driving Baku-Ceyhan's construction. Turkish officials have complained the congestion of ships along the Bosphorus straits pose environmental and safety risks. Baku-Ceyhan will alleviate the jam created by tankers trying to get through to sea. Chevron has tried to alleviate these fears by guaranteeing that it will do all it can to minimize accidents brought on by oil tankers. The oil major holds 50 percent of the Tengizchevroil venture, which is developing Kazakhstan's Tengiz field. Once CPC begins loading tankers and sending them across the Black Sea, the Turkish government anticipates another 3,000 tankers on top of the 7,000 that annually cross through the straits. Faced with growing opposition from Turkish environmentalists, Chevron has thrown its weight behind Baku-Ceyhan. "Chevron supports the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline and believes it will be built," said Ian MacDonald, president of Chevron Neftegaz. (back to top) Russian Environmental Digest -- the world's major English-language press on environmental issues in Russia 24 September - 30 September 2001, Vol. 3, No. 39 *** US to build buffer zone in Balkans The Sunday Times 09/23/2001 Page 25 By Tom Walker THE Bush administration is planning to strengthen its military presence in the Balkans, which it now sees as a potential buffer against terror threats from the east. William Farish, the American ambassador to Britain and a close friend of President George W Bush, has said US policy advisers are evaluating how best to safeguard American and European interests in the region, including planned pipelines to the vast oil and gas reserves of central Asia. Before Bush became president it was widely thought he favoured a phased withdrawal of troops from Bosnia and Kosovo. During a recent visit to Bondsteel, the main American base in Kosovo, he said the burden of peacekeeping should be borne by European armies. But after the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, Farish told The Sunday Times that foreign policy was being radically rethought. "I think all of that is under review now, particularly in light of recent developments," he said in an interview. "What the final deployment is, is something that is under discussion -as it falls into play with the whole terrorist plan." Unusually for a new ambassador to Britain, Farish hopes to visit the Balkans within the next three weeks, and to assess American policy in Macedonia, the region's current tinderbox, before reporting back to Bush. He identified the Northern Ireland peace process and enlisting support for Bush's national missile defence plan as his other foreign policy priorities. Although Nato's operation to collect weapons from rebel Albanians ends this week, Nato planners are hoping many of the troops involved can stay on until a follow-up mission is agreed with the Macedonian government. Hardline members of the government in Skopje want Nato out of the country. Farish outlined a very different possible scenario, in which Nato strengthened its presence in the region, turning the Balkans into a prominent theatre of operations and training. Perhaps reflecting US fears of a rise in Islamic fundamentalism in Turkey, a Nato ally, Farish sees the Balkans as a possible buffer zone in future against unstable regimes to the east. There are currently 3,350 American peacekeepers in Bosnia among a total Nato-led force of 18,000, and 6,200 in Kosovo, among a force of 37,500. Several hundred American troops are providing logistical support for the arms gathering operation in Macedonia. Farish said the key thinkers behind Bush's strategy were his deputy, Dick Cheney; the defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld; the national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice; and the secretary of state, Colin Powell. Their policy would be geared towards long-term stability, rather than what Farish described as the haphazard troop deployments of the Clinton years. "We won't see American troops thrown into every crisis like it's a dartboard," he said. The new ambassador is hardly limiting his field of vision, however. A son of one of the five great oil families of Houston, Texas, Farish is fascinated by the "black gold" that lies in large quantities in the countries around the Caspian Sea. He sees America's relationship with Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin, as vital to its future influence in the area. "I think we'll see a whole new era between the United States and Russia," he said. "Putin appears to be very direct, very straightforward -he and President Bush will get along very well." Last week the former prime minister of Kazakhstan, Akezhan Kazhegeldin, said America should join forces with Russia and use former Soviet pipelines to move oil to northern and southern Europe. Farish believes the stability of Macedonia, which lies on a projected pipeline route between the Black Sea and the Adriatic, is vital to the region's economic development. "The whole area is in a state of flux," he said. "It's going to be a fascinating study for the next few years." Лондон, 8 октября 2001 года http://www.eurasia.org.ru/ |