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Каспинфо ноябрь 1999 |
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Название: Бюллетень Туркистан 99-144(на английском языке) Главные Пункты: * 18 ноября в Стамбуле подписан контракт на реализацию трубопроводного проекта Баку -Тбилиси - Джейхан. *Подписаны сделки о трубопроводах в обход России. * Аннотация проекта "Подсчет углеводородного потенциала", направленного на стимулирование экспорта нефти и газа из Центральной Азии. * Грузия занимает выгодную позицию в транспорте энергии, но сейчас все внимание обращено на транзит природного газа. (24.11.1999) Полный Текст Бюллетень Туркистан 99-144(на английском языке) TURKISTAN-ECONOMY-BULLETIN Volume 99:144-19-November-1999 Editors: Charlie Bartholomew, Mehmet Tutuncu ******** The Business Information Service for the Newly Independent States (BISNIS) is the U.S. Department of Commerce's information clearinghouse on trade and investment in the emerging markets of the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union. BISNIS has created the "BISNIS Trades & Tenders" electronic newsletter to help U.S. companies find business opportunities in these expanding markets. These opportunities are provided solely as an informational service and do not represent an endorsement by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Verification of leads is the responsibility of the reader. BISNIS may consider other private sector-generated trade leads and tenders, in electronic form only, and publish on a space available basis. Please send your leads to BISNIS@ITA.DOC.GOV A full selection of BISNIS leads and other market intelligence are available via BISNIS OnLine at: www.bisnis.doc.gov Table of Contents for Web Supplement: Lead #1: Children's Clothing, Toys and Shoes - Moscow, Russia Lead #2: Tender Notification for Medical Diagnostic Equipment - Rostov, Russia Lead #3: ATM Machine - Togliatti, Russia Lead #4: Cereals, Canned Food Products - Russian Far East Lead #5: TENDER ON GAS AND CHEMICAL COMPLEX - Turkmenistan Lead #6: TENDER FOR 44.19% STAKE IN ONE OF UKRAINE'S LARGEST PETROLEUM PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTORS Lead BISNIS Briefs - Search For Partners, Nov. 16, 1999 16 Nov 1999 11:17:25 -0500 Search For Partners November 15, 1999 The Business Information Service for the Newly Independent States (BISNIS) is the U.S. government's clearinghouse for trade and investment information on the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union. BISNIS publishes SEARCH FOR PARTNERS to help U.S. companies find investment opportunities in the expanding markets of the former Soviet Union. SEARCH FOR PARTNERS distributes via this biweekly e-mail broadcast, and a limited selection of these leads publish in a monthly newsletter. Previous e-mail broadcasts are available through the BISNIS home page, at: www.bisnis.doc.gov. To receive the biweekly report, e-mail BISNIS at bisnis@ita.doc.gov or call (202) 482-4655. These opportunities are provided solely as an informational service and do not represent an endorsement by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Verification of these leads is the responsibility of the reader. Index of Investment Opportunities 1. Armenia - Energy 2. Armenia - Poultry 3. Armenia - Production of Bathroom Fixtures 4. Moscow, Russia - Auto Parts Recycling 5. Moscow, Russia - Waste Recovery 6. Moscow, Russia - Dental 7. Nikolajevsk-Na-Amure, Khabarovsk Oblast, Russia - Ship Building 8. Rostov-On-Don, Russia - Construction 9. Samara, Russia - Pharmaceuticals 10. Vladivostok, Russia - Travel and Tourism 11. Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia - Fisheries 12. Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia - Soft Drinks 13. Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia -Oil and Gas#7: ADB early notification Central Asia Projects, various >>><<>><<>><>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<> **** Caspian MEP Contract Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan AzadInform on Baku-Jeyhan 20 Nov 1999 AzadInform 20/11/1999 Habarlar-L@usc.edu On November 18 a contract on realization of MEP Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, due to transport Azeri oil to the world markets via Turkey signed at the "Chiragan" Palace of Istanbul with attendance of Presidents of US, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, and Turkmenistan. It is very possible that Baku-Ceyhan route will be the one of interesting debates and turn into the objective of analysis of political and economic experts of the world. Nevertheless, this issue pursues other goal. Putting aside similar commentaries and analysis and figures we will try to touch upon political importance of that contract for our state as well as region, on the whole Implementation of the contract. First, bears exceptional geo-political importance for Caucasian and Central Asia countries, which is why its implementation closely connect with political, will of Azeri people and his indispensable leader Heydar Aliyev. It is not accidental, that before arriving in Istanbul summit the head of the one of the influential American companies at his meeting with the President introduced a motion to rename the "Baku-Ceyhan" with "Heydar Aliyev's pipeline". Thus, "big oil game" having over 20-year history enters into its final stage. The goal of this game symbolizes key notions like economic upsurge, imperialistic ambitions crash, de-facto self-determination of nations and peoples. Economic upsurge notion means economic aspect of historical combat between Westerners and Slavophiles, divided world political map into influence areas. After collapse of the Soviet Union, the process of re-division of the world started again. Despite the Western countries economic prosperity day by day and turning into the most magnetic center of the planet, Russia also tries to long ago maintain its hegemony in a number of regions and divide the world into two poles. At present stage of civilization, this process depends on in which pole the economic prosperity will develop more rapid. If to take into consideration the fact, those energy resources are an aorta of any economic system and they are exhaustible we must to recognize. Russia still plays the leading role all over the world thanks to its current possibilities and potential. It is clear, that under such a situation keeping the Caspian oil under its control should refer to maintenance of the leading role of Russia also in the next century. Thus, signing of the agreement on Baku-Ceyhan route on November 18 moved transportation of Azeri oil to the West market out of Russia's control, which has not tactical but strategic importance. On the one hand, Azerbaijan turns into the stimulus for a number of Central Asia countries desiring to rationally use their natural resources and Azerbaijan takes upon itself a mission of model state for sooner economic development of such an important region thanked to its political bravery. According to experts, realization of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline must cause economic prosperity of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, but also all Caucasus and Central Asia regions. Gaining economic independence is a primary objective of newly created states. Thus, Russia's imperialistic daydreams were stroked fatal blow. Russia, whose political, economic, external and internal parameters visibly staggered, realizes that it might be among secondary countries. Hard plight of Russia in "big oil game" on the Azerbaijani scene must drive it to physiologic depression. It is enough to remind the only fact: the Russian Fuel and Energy minister V. Kalyuzhny held a press conference in the "Ekho Moskvy" radio office having not waited for the end of the signing ceremony with attendance of president Clinton. It is interesting, that Lexis and stylistics of the Russian minister seemed to be deprived of the traditional dictation intonation and threatening phraseology. It looked like complaint of the sportsman lost the honest marathon, about his opponents. However, marathon lasted for some years. It should be reminded the stages of the game, played with Azerbaijan and where Azerbaijan became a winner. At the first stage, (during the USSR) Azerbaijan expended its fuel-raw materials resources for needs of the whole Union. At the second one Azerbaijan, based on its sovereignty rights, decides to exploit its underground resources together with foreign companies, differing from Russian ones with their modern technology and technical equipment. Russia couldn't to put any serious argument against the logic of this decision and that is why raised an issue of the status of the Caspian Sea. At the third stage Azerbaijani president excited interests of the Caspian states, put into agenda a principle of division of sea into sectors and agreed to export our oil through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline in order to temporarily meet Russia's demands. At the same time, he reassured the West with his statements about the laying of the main oil pipeline to Ceyhan. At the fourth stage it occurs an opportunity to bring sharp accusations against the Yeltsin-Chernomyrdin government in view of rise of sociopolitical tension in the South of Russia. Alternative Baku-Supsa western pipelines are commissioned. At last, it is started the realization of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, what testifies strengthening of Azerbaijan's independence not de-jure, but de-facto. It is not accidental, also American president Bill Clinton dwelt on the very this aspect of the issue during the signing ceremony at the Chiragan palace and evaluated this contract as the main geo-strategic factor to further consolidate independence of the Central Asian states. It means, Baku-Ceyhan is also a historical document, able to change the political landscape of the region. Despite the Karabakh crisis, Azerbaijan people faced with, hard plight of refugees and IDP-s, their social conditions, our people could realize its political will and wish to integrate to the West and world democracy. Now it is possible to state with full responsibility, that Azerbaijani State in the limelight of the world community. Achieving this with wise and delicately realized political maneuvers of its leaders, Azeri people and even its part, being in opposition to Heydar Aliyev's regime have to be grateful to him for his deserts in realization of our national political will. ********* Analytical experts group of "AzadInform" Energy Pipeline Deals Signed, Bypass Russia Nov 19, 1999 Reuters ISTANBUL, The leaders of Turkey and three former Soviet states signed landmark agreements on Thursday to lay the legal basis for oil and gas pipelines aimed at bypassing Russia to bring Caspian energy resources to Western markets. "These pipelines will be an insurance policy for the entire world, helping to ensure that our energy resources pass through multiple routes, not a single choke point," said U.S. President Clinton, who helped steer the agreements to completion and signed them as a witness. The presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkmenistan - Suleyman Demirel, Haydar Aliyev, Eduard Shevardnadze and Saparmurat Niyazov - signed the documents during a 54-nation European security summit in Istanbul. Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev also attended and signed a joint commitment to the project. The project was shepherded by the United States, which wants to break Russia's dominance over transport routes from the region and allow the newly freed Caspian nations to market their own energy resources. The documents included deals on a 1,730 km (1,080 mile) oil pipeline from the Azeri capital Baku, through Georgia to Turkey's southern Ceyhan oil terminal, and a trans-Caspian pipeline to carry gas from Turkmenistan to Turkey via Azerbaijan and Georgia. "Today we're finally making our dreams come together," Demirel said after the ceremony. Russia, which had reportedly tried as recently as last weekend to scuttle the oil pipelining dealings, dismissed the $2.4 billion project as too expensive. "For me it is not interesting as it is not profitable from an economic point of view," Russian Fuel Minister Viktor Kalyuzhny told a news briefing. "But any project has the right to exist. So has Baku-Ceyhan," he added. Leaders at the ceremony acknowledged that the viability of the oil project remained to be proved and financing had yet to be arranged. But they expressed optimism that both pipelines would be built. "Today represents just the beginning of the intensive commercial phase of this project," Clinton said. Clinton pledged U.S. help in financing the Baku-Ceyhan oil and Trans-Caspian gas pipelines through U.S. government agencies. The Baku-Ceyhan pipeline will need one million barrels per day of oil (50 million metric tons a year) to be commercially viable. The plan calls for the pipeline's construction to begin in early 2001 for completion in 2004. The project, which is also regarded as an environmentally friendly alternative to shipping oil through Turkey's narrow straits, is designed so that the pipeline will pump out 25 million metric tons of Azeri and 20 million metric tons of Kazakh oil annually. Kazakhstan, which sits on huge hydrocarbon reserves, has agreed to commit "large volumes" of its oil to the pipeline, Azeri President Aliyev said at the signing ceremony. The Turkish foreign ministry also said this in a statement but Kazakh officials have not confirmed the commitment. The foreign ministry statement said the three countries and the BP Amoco-led Azerbaijan International Operating Consortium (AIOC) would form an implementation committee to draw up detailed engineering documents and a finance plan. The Baku-Ceyhan project was criticized by a Western oil consortium developing Caspian fields, which said the pipeline's foreseen throughput would not justify its cost, put by Turkey at $2.4 billion. Turkey agreed to guarantee the $1.4 billion cost of the part of the project to be built in Turkey, U.S. officials said. BP Amoco, the AIOC leader, announced support for the project in October, in an apparent turnaround of policy to make it commercially viable. The gas pipeline project, for which the leaders signed a framework agreement, plans a 2,000-km (1,250-mile) pipeline for 16 billion cubic meters annually to Turkey from late 2002. Turkmen President Niyazov said Turkmenistan had agreed on the prices with Turkey and Azerbaijan and would eventually pump 30 billion cubic meters a year, of which 14 billion cubic meters would be for European markets. ********* European Union's TACIS Program INOGATE Project started in Azerbaijan 09.11.99 AzadInform Habarlar-l@usc.edu Baku, - 2 experts of the European Union, Mr. Jeremy Dains, manager of the project INO 9702 - compound part of the European Union's TACIS Program INOGATE, and Mr. Paul McGee, have been arriving in Baku since November 4 for carrying out of the above project in Baku. The Program started September 1, 1999 and scheduled for 18 months. The project named "Estimation of hydrocarbon potentials" aims to train and render technical assistance for evaluation of hydrocarbon resources, management and reporting them using international methods. The INOGATE Program is directed to promote oil and gas export from the Central Asia to Europe. The project consists of three components: Introductory or Research stage (which is being carried out at present), training and sub-projects over the concrete technical assistance. The project covers Azerbaijan, Armenia, Byelorussia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldavia, Tajikistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. As soon as introductory researches are completed and summarized, training program will be worked out and realized. Training will give Azerbaijan and other beneficiary -countries opportunity to evaluate their hydrocarbon resources, manage and report on them whereby owns current system and the most favorable international ones. Ultimately this will help to country to appeal for and get financial support to promote hydrocarbon export to Europe. The last stage or sub-project is intended for supplanting and prolonging of official training whereas EU experts will work together with beneficiary-specialists over concrete project, connected with the above program. ******* At Caspian crossroads Petroleum Economist October 29, 1999 SECTION Pg.16 Georgia's strategic position, in terms of energy transportation, is well established - but now the focus is on natural gas, writes Isabel Gorst. Georgia has always been a cultural and trading crossroads between east and west. At the turn of the century, the Rothschilds built one of the world's first oil pipelines across the republic from Azerbaijan. Almost 100 years later, Georgia became host to the first non-Russian pipeline route for exports out of the landlocked Caspian republics of the former Soviet Union. Now that oil is flowing through the Baku-Supsa line, Georgia plans to expand into the natural gas transport business. The vision of Georgia as a strategic transport corridor for oil and natural gas exports out of the Caspian and Central Asia has formed the cornerstone of economic policy since President Eduard Shevardnadze came to power in 1992, says Peter Mamradze, government chief of staff in Tbilisi. Back in the early 1990s, nobody, except for the president, really believed it could happen, admits Mamradze. Russia was determined that Caspian oil should move through its pipeline network and Western investors were reluctant to consider infrastructure projects in the war-torn Caucasus. But geopolitical obstacles do not easily daunt Shevardnadze, who, as foreign minister under the last Soviet president, Mikhail Gorbachev, played a key role in dismantling cold war policies. - Transit management In 1997, Shevardnadze signed decrees setting up two state-owned companies to manage oil and gas transit across Georgia. A former journalist, Georgi Chanturia, recalled from Baku, where he was serving as ambassador to Azerbaijan, to head the Georgian International Oil Corporation (GIOC). Alexei Gotsiridze invited to put aside a career in business and politics to lead the Georgian Gas International Corporation (GIC). GIC has responsibility for Georgia's extensive high-pressure gas pipeline network, which could, says Gotsiridze, open to several producers as a route to world markets. Georgia has no gas production of its own so far, and all the gas entering the system comes from Russia. Throughput has dropped sharply from a high of 16 bn cubic metres a year (cm/y) in the Soviet era and the pipelines would need rehabilitation before such large volumes could be transported again. However, at less cost, Georgian lines could be extended southwest to Turkey for the use not just of Russia, but any other Caspian or Central Asian producer with a natural gas surplus for export. Compared with GIOC, which this April celebrated start-up of a pipeline linking oilfields off Azerbaijan with oil terminals at Supsa, on the Georgian Black Sea, GIC's business is relatively undeveloped. Visitors to the company's Tbilisi headquarters are ushered through a hall filled with wheelbarrows and cement before riding the lift to the president's office on a smartly refurbished floor of the building. There is an air of expectancy about the place, encouraged by both the discovery this year of large volumes of gas offshore Azerbaijan and by the entrance of gas-rich Turkmenistan into the race to capture Turkish gas markets. GIC's business as manager of an international gas highway is poised for take-off. GIC has gained greatly from the successful start of oil deliveries through the Baku-Supsa pipeline. Apart from placing Georgia on the map as a petroleum highway, the oil pipeline has established Georgia's credibility as a country capable of negotiating multinational deals independently. In the future, the oil and gas transit business should bring Georgia substantial financial benefits. "Georgia is a signatory to both the Energy Charter and the INOGATE treaty. We believe that, in exchange for honoring terms of those agreements, Georgia can receive significant economic benefits," says Gotsiridze. - The race for Turkey Forecasts that natural gas demand will boom in Turkey over the next two decades have set off a race between rival producers to capture this new market. Georgia could provide transit services to four of the contestants, including Russia, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and, eventually, Iran. The disastrous earthquake in Anatolia this August may slow Turkish plans to build a series of gas-fired power plants that would depend on imported feedstock. However, the country remains committed to natural gas, as the basis of its future energy needs. For potential suppliers, Turkey is important, not just as a market in its own right, but also as a route to other consumers in south and central Europe. Russia leads the race for the Turkish gas market. Gazprom already supplies some 9 bn cm/y via pipelines running through Bulgaria to northwest Turkey. In partnership with Italy's Eni, it is pushing ahead with ambitious plans to establish a second route to Turkey across the Black Sea. Japanese steel makers have already won tenders to manufacture pipes for the so-called Blue Stream system and hopes that the Japan Export Import Bank will provide credits to help finance these supplies. Gazprom has vowed to start up Blue Stream late next year, a target that the project's critics consider over-ambitious. Waters in the Black Sea are extremely deep and both subsea mountains and sulfur seepage could pose significant environmental risks. However, the fact that the Eni affiliate, Saipem, has undertaken to build the 392-km offshore section of the system suggests that the feat is realizable, says Jonathan Stern, of the consultants, Gas Strategies. Saipem would be unlikely to risk its reputation as a world leader in subsea pipeline construction by committing to a project it could not fulfill, he said. Georgia could provide Russia with a third gateway to the Turkish market, says Gotsiridze. Russia is already using the Georgian pipeline system to transit about 1.5 bn cm/y of gas exports to Armenia, in addition to some 1 bn cm/y supplied to the republic itself. Existing pipelines could extend to the Turkish frontier without huge investment. For economic and political reasons, Gazprom is under intense pressure to finish Blue Stream on schedule. The US government is backing the rival Trans-Caspian Pipeline project (TCP) that will originate at gas fields in Turkmenistan and cross the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus before entering Turkey. TCP and Blue Stream are more than just rivals for the Turkish gas market are. Increasingly, the two projects look like an embodiment of the US/Russian competition for influence over the oil and gas resources of the Caspian region. PSG International appointed last autumn to head the TCP consortium. This August, Shell joined the team, adding significantly to the project's credibility. At the same time, Shell signed a strategic alliance agreement with the government of Turkmenistan to explore and develop hydrocarbon reserves in the republic. Under this alliance, the priority will be to pinpoint fields in Turkmenistan to provide a source of gas for TCP, which will eventually supply some 16 bn cm/y to Turkey and similar volumes to other markets in Europe. Despite its impressive array of backers, TCP has many hurdles to cross, both political and economic. Iran and Russia have already declared that they oppose plans to lay a pipeline across the Caspian Sea, which, they insist, is an area where resource projects manage jointly by all surrounding states. TCP will also be expensive, costing between $2.5 bn and $3 bn to complete. - Reserves complicate issue The discovery of very large natural gas reserves offshore Azerbaijan this year has complicated the outlook for exports out of the Caspian region. BP Amoco estimates that some 700 bn cm of gas may lie at the Shah Deniz field where it is operating in a consortium with Statoil, Elf Aquitaine, Turkey's TPAO, Iran's OIEC and Russia's LUKoil. Other, so far unexplored, blocks in the southern Caspian believed gas prone. Speaking at a conference in Baku in early June, Vitaly Begliarbekov, deputy head of the foreign investment department at state-owned SOCAR, invited foreign companies to join a gas consortium to tackle Azerbaijan's estimated 3 trillion cm of gas reserves (PE 7/99). Azerbaijan, like neighboring Georgia, has an extensive gas distribution network that could form the first leg of a trans-Caucasian export highway carrying natural gas from the Caspian and Central Asian region, Begliarbekov said. However, he made it clear that any producers moving gas across Azerbaijan would be required to open up the system to Azerbaijani gas. Transport of Azerbaijani crude oil across Georgia began in April, when a pipeline linking oil terminals at Sangachal, south of Baku, with Supsa on the Black Sea, was commissioned. Since then, AIOC, which raised all the $565m to build the 830-km pipeline, has stopped using Russian routes altogether and is relying entirely on the Georgian line to transport crude from the early Chirag field. Start-up of the Baku-Supsa system happened just in time. Worsening ethnic conflict in Chechnya spilled over into neighboring Dagestan this summer and oil transport through these Russian republics has ceased altogether. Throughput in the Baku-Supsa line has raised to 150,000 b/d easily boosted to 200,000 b/d, with the addition of compressor stations and extra storage at the Georgian port. AIOC has said it would prefer to expand Baku-Supsa rather than invest in construction of a larger trunk line running to the Turkish port of Ceyhan |